Donald Trump did Mitt Romney a favor when he recently labeled the former Massachusetts governor a “small businessman.”
Trump intended his remarks to be disparaging, but they work in Romney’s favor. His comments drew attention to Romney’s key strength — his business experience — and lumped Romney in with a highly regarded group of entrepreneurs that drive the American economy. And while Trump deals in potshots and birth certificates, the Romney campaign rollout has shown a seriousness that is only amplified by the media circus surrounding The Donald.
At a moment when Standard & Poor’s has downgraded America’s credit outlook and disappointing labor market numbers persist, it is becoming clearer and clearer: Mitt Romney is the right man at the right moment.
It is true that a Romney candidacy faces many serious challenges. Some believe he will be unable to shake off criticism of his Massachusetts health care reforms. Others see his opponents salivating at the chance to dredge up his comments on abortion from his early political career.
In a booming economy, these challenges might have been too large to overcome. Yet the seriousness of America’s economic situation demands a serious leader. Of the presumptive Republican candidates, Romney has made all the right moves to show he meets that need. When he travels, his events have an economic theme, with him stopping by small businesses or foreclosed neighborhoods. When he speaks, his focus is almost exclusively on his desire to get America working again.
There are two critical — and incorrect — pieces of conventional wisdom that have fed this narrative that Romney can’t win the nomination.
The first is that Romney’s health care reforms and previous positions on social issues combine to form a fatal flaw that will make it difficult to court the support of conservatives and the tea party. The second is that, if Romney cannot win these voters, he would be unable to win in a primary that requires aggressively courting the party’s right flank.
As for the first assertion, if the conservative voters of the party have decided Romney isn’t the right man for the job, they aren’t telling pollsters. Despite the conventional wisdom that Romney will struggle to court tea party voters in the primary, recent ABC News/Washington Post polling of tea party supporters showed that Romney was the strongest candidate matched up against President Obama, beating out potential contenders like Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann. Romney’s numbers may sag as opponents hammer him during the next year, but the notion that he’s anathema to the tea party is simply wrong.
The second, and perhaps more critical, piece of conventional wisdom that deserves debunking is the notion that the only path to the nomination is through the “base,” those identifying as “very conservative” within the GOP.
Take a look at the exit polls from the primaries in 2008. While in Iowa, Huckabee won the coalition of “very” and “somewhat conservative” voters and took the state, and in New Hampshire it was Romney who won the “very conservative” voters. But it didn’t matter. McCain assembled enough voters out of the middle and took the state.
In South Carolina, it again was Huckabee who won the third of the state that identified as “very conservative” — and by huge margins — but it wasn’t enough to beat McCain, who won the support of those “somewhat conservative” and “moderate” voters. In Florida, Romney won the “very conservative” and was awarded no delegates.
Will the Republican nominee need the support of the party’s conservatives? Absolutely. And the nominee ought to be someone with that support. But running as far to the right as possible is hardly the optimal strategy. The items over which many commentators believe Romney will have trouble — social issues and health care — pale in comparison to the importance voters are placing on the economy.
He can win conservatives while also winning the middle by maintaining a constant focus. Jobs, jobs, jobs. Economy, economy, economy. Over and over and over.
Thus far, the Romney campaign has made all of the right moves. While other potential candidates focus on the size of their campaign machine or the size of their bank accounts, Romney has been unwavering in his message: I am the man to get America working again. Given the shape of the economy, it is looking more and more like this may be the moment for Mitt after all.
Trump intended his remarks to be disparaging, but they work in Romney’s favor. His comments drew attention to Romney’s key strength — his business experience — and lumped Romney in with a highly regarded group of entrepreneurs that drive the American economy. And while Trump deals in potshots and birth certificates, the Romney campaign rollout has shown a seriousness that is only amplified by the media circus surrounding The Donald.
At a moment when Standard & Poor’s has downgraded America’s credit outlook and disappointing labor market numbers persist, it is becoming clearer and clearer: Mitt Romney is the right man at the right moment.
It is true that a Romney candidacy faces many serious challenges. Some believe he will be unable to shake off criticism of his Massachusetts health care reforms. Others see his opponents salivating at the chance to dredge up his comments on abortion from his early political career.
In a booming economy, these challenges might have been too large to overcome. Yet the seriousness of America’s economic situation demands a serious leader. Of the presumptive Republican candidates, Romney has made all the right moves to show he meets that need. When he travels, his events have an economic theme, with him stopping by small businesses or foreclosed neighborhoods. When he speaks, his focus is almost exclusively on his desire to get America working again.
There are two critical — and incorrect — pieces of conventional wisdom that have fed this narrative that Romney can’t win the nomination.
The first is that Romney’s health care reforms and previous positions on social issues combine to form a fatal flaw that will make it difficult to court the support of conservatives and the tea party. The second is that, if Romney cannot win these voters, he would be unable to win in a primary that requires aggressively courting the party’s right flank.
As for the first assertion, if the conservative voters of the party have decided Romney isn’t the right man for the job, they aren’t telling pollsters. Despite the conventional wisdom that Romney will struggle to court tea party voters in the primary, recent ABC News/Washington Post polling of tea party supporters showed that Romney was the strongest candidate matched up against President Obama, beating out potential contenders like Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann. Romney’s numbers may sag as opponents hammer him during the next year, but the notion that he’s anathema to the tea party is simply wrong.
The second, and perhaps more critical, piece of conventional wisdom that deserves debunking is the notion that the only path to the nomination is through the “base,” those identifying as “very conservative” within the GOP.
Take a look at the exit polls from the primaries in 2008. While in Iowa, Huckabee won the coalition of “very” and “somewhat conservative” voters and took the state, and in New Hampshire it was Romney who won the “very conservative” voters. But it didn’t matter. McCain assembled enough voters out of the middle and took the state.
In South Carolina, it again was Huckabee who won the third of the state that identified as “very conservative” — and by huge margins — but it wasn’t enough to beat McCain, who won the support of those “somewhat conservative” and “moderate” voters. In Florida, Romney won the “very conservative” and was awarded no delegates.
Will the Republican nominee need the support of the party’s conservatives? Absolutely. And the nominee ought to be someone with that support. But running as far to the right as possible is hardly the optimal strategy. The items over which many commentators believe Romney will have trouble — social issues and health care — pale in comparison to the importance voters are placing on the economy.
He can win conservatives while also winning the middle by maintaining a constant focus. Jobs, jobs, jobs. Economy, economy, economy. Over and over and over.
Thus far, the Romney campaign has made all of the right moves. While other potential candidates focus on the size of their campaign machine or the size of their bank accounts, Romney has been unwavering in his message: I am the man to get America working again. Given the shape of the economy, it is looking more and more like this may be the moment for Mitt after all.
