On Dec. 20, Rick Santorum polled at 5 percent in Iowa, placing him ahead of only the MIA Jon Huntsman in the state. Although Mitt Romney officially won the contest, Santorum captured 25 percent of caucus voters last night, essentially tying the “inevitable” Romney. Santorum came from further behind, faster, than anyone in caucus history. It was Rudy, Hoosiers, and the Miracle on Ice, rolled into one — the biggest electoral upset in modern primary politics.
And despite what some of the spinners are selling, the entire race is changed. Let’s work our way around the horn.
Rick Santorum: No money, no organization, no compelling personal story or shtick, Santorum surged by doing two things: He sold a vision of the country that embraced the culture war and conservative values and he formulated a populist economic plan that offered a different twist on the small-government line being taken by the rest of the field. And the real killer app was that Santorum found a way to marry his economics to family-formation and middle class mores.
The received wisdom is that Santorum can’t be a factor going forward, but it’s not clear why that’s true. He has a message. He connects with voters. Look at the exit polls and it’s clear that conservatives, evangelicals and tea party voters like him.
Mitt Romney: Always a bridesmaid, despite his money, endorsements, organization, six-year campaign, and decision to push all-in with the caucus. What happened? It’s what always happens with Romney. He pushed a tepid, generic message, gave good debates, and then dropped millions of dollars in negative advertising on the head of whoever he thought his nearest rival happened to be.
And he prevaricated constantly in the process. For example, when Newt Gingrich criticized him for his super PAC running dishonest, negative ads, Romney first said that he couldn’t control the PAC because, “It’s illegal ... I’m not allowed to communicate with a super-PAC in any way, shape or form.”
Confronted with the fact that this was untrue, he altered his position and simply said, “I’m sure I could go out and say, ‘Hey please don’t do anything negative.’ But you know, this is politics.” And Romney wonders why people don’t like him.
Worse for Romney is that after running in Iowa, hard, for six years, he couldn’t even top his percentage from 2008. To paraphrase “The Princess Bride,” I do not think “inevitable” means what he thinks it means.
Ron Paul: The theory was always that Paul’s ceiling was somewhere around 15 percent. Twenty-one percent still counts as a win for him. And if he continues to carry something like that between now and April, he makes it even more difficult for someone to win the outright majority of delegates needed to secure the delegation.
Newt Gingrich: Thirteen percent and fourth place isn’t bad for a guy who had $8 million in negative ads dropped on his head during the last month. Gingrich has money in the bank now, strong poll numbers nationally, and the opportunity to consolidate the Not Romney vote as other candidates drop out. (Incidentally, John McCain took 13 percent in Iowa in 2008.)
Rick Perry: After executing the most impressive launch in recent history, Perry’s campaign made terrible strategic decisions down the stretch — running positive “brand” ads instead of going negative early; and when he finally did go negative, attacking Santorum instead of Romney. Don’t be surprised if Perry drops out in the next day or two and endorses Gingrich.
Michele Bachmann: Her campaign is over, too, which means that another 5 percent of the vote will eventually go into play for candidates not named Romney.
So what’s next? Expect New Hampshire to be a bloodbath. Santorum, Gingrich, and Paul are all going to play there. Huntsman is in the Granite State, too, where he has been lying in wait for months. All four of them have the motive and means to go after Romney with a pair of pliers and a blowtorch.
It’s a one-week sprint. Romney is playing defense with a big lead in his Alamo — a state he’s supposed to win by at least 20 points. But the field is compacted now and not only do we have one candidate with enormous momentum, but if Perry and Bachmann get out, the conservative vote will begin to consolidate.
And despite what some of the spinners are selling, the entire race is changed. Let’s work our way around the horn.
Rick Santorum: No money, no organization, no compelling personal story or shtick, Santorum surged by doing two things: He sold a vision of the country that embraced the culture war and conservative values and he formulated a populist economic plan that offered a different twist on the small-government line being taken by the rest of the field. And the real killer app was that Santorum found a way to marry his economics to family-formation and middle class mores.
The received wisdom is that Santorum can’t be a factor going forward, but it’s not clear why that’s true. He has a message. He connects with voters. Look at the exit polls and it’s clear that conservatives, evangelicals and tea party voters like him.
Mitt Romney: Always a bridesmaid, despite his money, endorsements, organization, six-year campaign, and decision to push all-in with the caucus. What happened? It’s what always happens with Romney. He pushed a tepid, generic message, gave good debates, and then dropped millions of dollars in negative advertising on the head of whoever he thought his nearest rival happened to be.
And he prevaricated constantly in the process. For example, when Newt Gingrich criticized him for his super PAC running dishonest, negative ads, Romney first said that he couldn’t control the PAC because, “It’s illegal ... I’m not allowed to communicate with a super-PAC in any way, shape or form.”
Confronted with the fact that this was untrue, he altered his position and simply said, “I’m sure I could go out and say, ‘Hey please don’t do anything negative.’ But you know, this is politics.” And Romney wonders why people don’t like him.
Worse for Romney is that after running in Iowa, hard, for six years, he couldn’t even top his percentage from 2008. To paraphrase “The Princess Bride,” I do not think “inevitable” means what he thinks it means.
Ron Paul: The theory was always that Paul’s ceiling was somewhere around 15 percent. Twenty-one percent still counts as a win for him. And if he continues to carry something like that between now and April, he makes it even more difficult for someone to win the outright majority of delegates needed to secure the delegation.
Newt Gingrich: Thirteen percent and fourth place isn’t bad for a guy who had $8 million in negative ads dropped on his head during the last month. Gingrich has money in the bank now, strong poll numbers nationally, and the opportunity to consolidate the Not Romney vote as other candidates drop out. (Incidentally, John McCain took 13 percent in Iowa in 2008.)
Rick Perry: After executing the most impressive launch in recent history, Perry’s campaign made terrible strategic decisions down the stretch — running positive “brand” ads instead of going negative early; and when he finally did go negative, attacking Santorum instead of Romney. Don’t be surprised if Perry drops out in the next day or two and endorses Gingrich.
Michele Bachmann: Her campaign is over, too, which means that another 5 percent of the vote will eventually go into play for candidates not named Romney.
So what’s next? Expect New Hampshire to be a bloodbath. Santorum, Gingrich, and Paul are all going to play there. Huntsman is in the Granite State, too, where he has been lying in wait for months. All four of them have the motive and means to go after Romney with a pair of pliers and a blowtorch.
It’s a one-week sprint. Romney is playing defense with a big lead in his Alamo — a state he’s supposed to win by at least 20 points. But the field is compacted now and not only do we have one candidate with enormous momentum, but if Perry and Bachmann get out, the conservative vote will begin to consolidate.
